San Diego TigerSoft Investing December Meetup

Agenda for November 2008 TigerSoft User Group Meeting. Visit our website - www.tigersoft.com Lots of Important News 1) The money ($700,000,000,000) is "still not being put to work." The banks have been given billions without any guarantee that they will start loaning the money. This is bearish. 2. Bush has just said "NO" to a new stimulus package, even though he has just asked each person in the US to contribute $2300 to the banks. This is bearish. 3) The consumer is tapped out. Wealth has now reached levels of concentration not seen since 1928. I remember doing a lot of reading where Keynes talked about under-consumption and the need for public works to put people back to work if the jobs were not forthcoming privately. Without such a program, the outlook for the economy will not get much brighter. And it may worsen overseas. And that will hurt the US. We are all in this together. 4) All sectors of the stock market are now down steeply for the last month. There are no pockets of strength. There is no leadership. 5) All countries' stock markets are down badly. The SP-500 is holding up relatively well, being down only 37% for the last year. All but a handful of foreign ETFs are down much more. 6) The Dollar is strong. How will that benefit the market? Stocks that import are being benefited. Example: Walmart. Exporters will be hurt a lot. Tech stocks do a lot of exporting. Expect the QQQQ and NASDAQ to be weak. We now have DEFLATION, not inflation to worry about. Deflation is a symptom of a coming DEPRESSION. New economic policies are needed. Trickle-down doesn't work. That money is now being hidden under a mattress and in T-Bills, just as it was in the 1930s. Get out Keynes. There is no guarantee that private investments will be forthcoming until there is ample government spending on public works. 6) The job market is very bad and getting worse. 7) Housing prices continue to decline. A moratorium on foreclosures would help. It would reduce the inventory of houses for sale. 8) The SEC still refuses to ban naked short sales or stop short sales on down or zero-down ticks. Wall Street's trading interests are antithetical to Main Street's. Obama defends Cox (the SEC Chairman) from McCain, who said he would fire him. BUT THERE IS HOPE, DESPITE ALL THIS! 1.) Presidential Election Years most often bring a September decline and a rally from an October bottom. We will want to see how reliable is such a pattern. You have to go back to 1920 to find a Presidential Election Year when there was not a tradeable bounce from an October low. In 1920 radicals were being rounded up and deported by the Attorney Genera. In return, his house and Wall Street were bombed. We are far from 1920! 2) Peerless shows the market is now far below the normal lower bands. If a rally can take place, and get us back within the normal bands, the bullish seasonality will start to bring in some of the cash and hot money now resting on the sidelines. 3) We have a good market of stocks to study now. It's like when the tide is out at La Jolla Cove. That's when you can see the rocks. The best stocks stand out very clearly now. TECHNICALS Use Tiger's Closing Power. Openings are often very false in a bear market. The closings are "for real". I have done a lot of testing of this tool. We use Closing Power along with our Accumulation Index, OBV and Relative Strength. Look for non-confirmations by it of new price lows to suggest a bottom. Watch for its changing direction after a big run where Opening Power has also been falling. The outlook for 2009 is very problematic with banks not lending. But people are very tired of Bush. An Obama Administration will not use FEAR so quickly as the Bush Administration has. So, there should be a relief rally as Bush leaves the scene. OK - WHAT ORDERS DO WE WANT TO PUT IN. Given all these considerations, what Individual Stocks should we Buy or Sell Short? We will look at the stocks you own using the vantage point of TigerSoft's" automatic Buys and Sells and with an eye to whether the stocks show insider buying or selling using out Tiger Accumulation Index. Seasoned Tiger users always chime in. The Tiger Power Ranker can be applied to 6,000 stocks. We do this to find special situations that we may recommend now for purchase or sale. Keep in mind that the Tiger systems have been extensively back-tested. For example, the highest Tiger Accumulated stock in the DJI-30 typically rises 24% per year. Peerless has averaged since 1965 17%/year simply Buying and Selling the DJI-30 on its automatic major signals. This will be a very full agenda. I think it will be an especially important meeting for those new to Tiger, as well as those who have used TigerSoft and Peerless for years. We look forward to seeing you. "Tiger Bill"